［2008.02.23］Chad乍得：The aftermath后果

Feb 21st 2008 | NDJAMENA
From The Economist print edition

The rebels are gone, but not forgotten 叛军看不见了，但并没有被忘记

LOOTED and battle-scarred, the shops on Ndjamena's dusty main boulevard remain closed; thousands of Chadians, refugees in neighbouring Cameroon, have yet to return home; and the risk remains of a fresh rebel assault. But for now the message from President Idriss Déby, who on February 14th called a 15-day state of emergency, is clear: he has survived-again-the very type of coup attempt that first brought him to power 18 years ago.
首都恩贾梅纳的大街上积满灰尘，因为战斗的破坏和叛军的洗劫，街上的商店仍然关闭着。数以千计的乍得人和在邻国喀麦隆的难民，仍然没有返回他们的家园。一次新的叛乱袭击的危险仍然存在，但现在从2月14日伊德里斯·代比宣布实施一次为时15天的紧急状态来看，情况很明显，这位总统又一次从政变中幸存下来，而正是这样一种政变在18年前给他带来权力。

The February 2nd assault on Ndjamena, now known euphemistically as "the events", caught Mr Déby off guard. The three main rebel groups, normally so mutually antagonistic, fused into one column and moved in from the east with some 3,000 well-armed men. And, in contrast to their attempt in 2006, this time the rebels, who owed their weaponry to neighbouring Sudan, were organised. They attacked along two main corridors, towards the airport and towards the presidential palace, leaving over 160 killed and hundreds more wounded.
2月2日对恩贾梅纳的袭击，现在被委婉地称为"事件"，是趁代比总统不注意，由三支主要的叛乱组织发起的。他们此前通常相互敌对，但这次汇合为一支约3000人的装备精良的部队，从东边打了过来。与他们2006年的尝试相反，这次叛军得到邻国苏丹的军火，而且组织良好。他们沿着两条主要的走廊发起攻击，分别是朝机场和总统府。激烈的交火造成超过160人死亡，数百人受伤。

Mr Déby did not survive through his own efforts alone. Fighters from a Darfur rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), came to his aid, hence the number of English-speaking "soldiers" staffing the former French colony's security posts. Meanwhile, the contingent of some 1,100 French troops based in Ndjamena offered just enough logistical and intelligence support to ward off the rebels. As their supplies dwindled, the rebels melted away after just two days.
代比先生这次能幸免于难并不仅仅是由于他自己的努力。苏丹达尔富尔的一支叛军-正义和平等运动(JEM)-派出了战斗人员来援助他，因此，这个前法国殖民地的安全部队充满了说英语的"士兵"。与此同时，驻恩贾梅纳的一支约1100人的法军分队提供了后勤和情况支持来帮助赶走叛军。当叛军的补给困难时，他们两天后撤出了这个城市。

Yet if the immediate crisis is over, what of its aftermath? The capital's citizens, inured to fighting in Chad's hinterland, remain shocked by the speed with which the rebels reached them. Few risk going out much after dark, even though the curfew begins only at midnight.
如果这次的紧急危急算结束了，那它的后果又是什么呢？首都的居民尽管已经习惯于乍得中心地区的战乱，他们仍然对叛军进攻的速度感动惊讶。天黑以后很少有人冒险出门，尽管宵禁实际上仅仅在午夜才开始。

The obvious danger for the president is that there will be a next time, and that his luck will run out. A new generation of politicians in Paris is beginning to break with the traditional Fran?afrique policy of supporting so-called "strong men". Indeed, though the president might think the French-dominated European Union peacekeeping force now deploying in the east is there to bolster his regime, Brigadier-General Jean-Philippe Ganascia says he is not out to fight for the government: "I won't know who is a rebel, bandit or anything else. As long as somebody is threatening the population, I am ready to use the means I have got."
对代比总统而言，最明显的危险是将会有下一次袭击，而现在的这种运气也许将会失去。巴黎的新一代政治家们正在开始打破传统的支持所谓的"强人"的法非政策。虽然总统先生或许认为现在布置在乍得东部的由法国占主导的欧盟维和部队是在支持他的政权，实际上，Jean-Philippe Ganascia中将表示他将不会为这个政府作战："我不想知道它是叛军、土匪或者其他什么，只要有人在威胁大众，我将准备根据我的权限采取行动。"

Nor is the threat to Mr Déby purely military. The battle for Ndjamena has strained his relationship with the JEM. The group might now regret their move into Chad, as in their absence there was a fresh Sudanese assault on Darfur. Inconveniently, the president's new defence minister, Mahamat Ali Abdallah Nassour, also looks strong. Given that several rebel leaders are former members of Mr Déby's government, the minister's allegiance is far from assured. Meanwhile, Chadians know that ordinary life may get even worse: prices of everything from petrol to mango juice are soaring. For the refugee camps in the east, supply lines to the land-locked country are already under pressure as pre-positioning of food starts ahead of the rainy season. If violence halts the supply effort, there will indeed be a state of emergency for a country harbouring half-a-million refugees and displaced persons
威胁代比总统的不仅仅是军事方面。恩贾梅纳的战斗已经影响了他和JEM的关系。JEM现在也许后悔进入乍得，因为达尔富尔的苏丹军队趁他们不在发动的新袭击。不便说的还有，总统的新国防部长Mahamat Ali Abdallah Nassour看上去也是强人。考虑到好几个叛军的头目曾经是代比政府的成员，这位部长的忠诚度实在无法让人放心。与此同时，乍得人知道普通民众的生活也许会更困难：从汽油到芒果的所有商品的价格都在飞涨。对于东部的难民营来说，通往这个内陆国家的供应线早就处在压力之下，因为食物的存放必须要赶在雨季之前。如果暴行造成供应中断，那么对于一个拥有50万难民和流离失所的人的国家来说，那真的是紧急状态了。