[2008.03.01]Kenya肯尼亚

[2008.03.01]Kenya肯尼亚

A peace deal at last和平之光终现

Feb 28th 2008 | NAIROBI
From The Economist print edition

Kenya's quarrelling leaders have pulled back from the brink肯尼亚冲突各方领导人悬崖勒马，止步后撤。

KOFI ANNAN, the UN's former secretary-general, is a patient man, but not that patient. After spending a month overseeing agonisingly slow negotiations between Kenya's government and opposition, he was close to a power-sharing deal to save the country from more killing and instability. But once all the peripheral issues had been tidied up and the negotiators were left to share out raw power, the talks stalled yet again. On February 26th Mr Annan suspended them: it was time, he said, for the disputed president, Mwai Kibaki, and the opposition leader, Raila Odinga, to face up to their responsibilities and cut a deal themselves.
联合国前秘书长科菲•安南是有耐心，但他的耐心也不是没有限度的。肯尼亚政府和反对派代表间的谈判进展缓慢，令人苦恼，而安南花了一个月时间来监督两派的谈判之后，他已经近乎达成一项权力分享协议，这份协议将把这个国家从屠杀和动荡中拯救出来。但是，一旦所有这些外围的事情都处理好之后，代表们就面临着权力分配的问题了，这时，谈判再次停滞。2月26日，安南先生暂停谈判，他说，现在是时候让充满争议的齐贝吉总统和反对党领导人奥廷加先生来面对他们的责任和各自做出决定了。

Mr Annan's guile worked. Two days after the suspension, the hitherto obdurate Kenyan rivals, aided by the African Union's new chairman, Jakaya Kikwete, who is also president of neighbouring Tanzania, did Mr Annan's bidding. They struck a deal which all Kenyans hope will stick.
安南的计策生效了。谈判暂停两天后，在得到非盟新任主席，坦桑尼亚总统Jakaya Kikwete的帮助下，迄今为止一直顽固无情的肯尼亚敌对双方，终于按照安南的话做了。

Mr Odinga will become prime minister, with wide-ranging executive powers; Mr Kibaki will stay as president. Cabinet posts will be shared between their nominees. Parliament will entrench some constitutional amendments to shift the balance of power between president and prime minister.
奥廷加先生将会成为首相，拥有广泛的执行权力。齐贝吉先生将仍旧做他的总统。内阁的职位将由他们提名的人瓜分。议会将确保进行一些宪法修正来改变总统和首相之间的权力平衡。

It remains to be seen how the sharing of power will work in practice, especially after all the bad blood that has been spilt between the pair over many years. But the creation of the post of prime minister, which had not existed, was a victory for Mr Odinga. Mr Kibaki's people had previously insisted that, if there were to be a prime minister, he should have limited executive powers. This, it seems, will not be the case.
权力分享在实际中如何操作仍有待观察，特别是在多年来双方间的冲突已经造成了惨重的伤亡之后。但是，创设一个从前不存在的首相职位，是奥廷加先生的一个胜利。齐贝吉先生的人此前坚持表示，如果设立首相，首相只能拥有有限的执行权力。看来，这将不会成为事实。

The other most ticklish issue was whether the presidential election, which most independent observers reckoned was rigged, would be run again—and, if so, when. It is unlikely to be held in the near future. But it remained unclear whether Mr Kibaki would serve a full five-year presidential term.
其他最难对付的问题是是否要重新进行总统选举，以及如果重新举行的话，要在什么时候举行。大多数独立观察员认为大选被操纵。虽然不大可能在最近一段时间重新举行大选，但齐贝吉先生能否完成他的五年总统任期并不清楚。

It will take time for confidence to be rebuilt. Well over 1,000 people have been killed in the post-election violence. At least 300,000 people have been displaced by ethnic cleansing. Many of them will be wary of returning to their old homes soon. Kenya's economy has taken a bad knock. Above all, the country's reputation as a hub of stability and moderation in a volatile region has been sorely damaged. Even if the agreement signed this week holds, things will not easily return to normal.
恢复信心需要时间。有超过1000人已经在大选后的冲突中丧生，至少30万人因为种族清洗而流离失所。他们中的许多人对于很快回到老家表示谨慎。肯尼亚的经济已经受到沉重的打击。最重要的是，这个国家曾经被视作是动荡地区中稳定和温和的中心，但这一声誉已经严重受损。即使本周签署的协定得到执行，肯尼亚也不会很容易就能恢复到从前的样子。