[2008.03.01]Zimbabwe津巴布韦

[2008.03.01]Zimbabwe津巴布韦

Simba Makoni is getting up steam　辛巴•马科尼正在振作精神

Feb 28th 2008 | HARARE
From The Economist print edition

President Robert Mugabe may face a real challenge in the election on March 29th罗伯特•穆加贝总统也许将在3月29日的大选面对一个真正的挑战

TRUE to form, Robert Mugabe celebrated his 84th birthday last week in high style, jovially dismissing his latest serious challenger for the presidency as a prostitute and a frog. But Simba Makoni, who was kicked out of the ruling ZANU-PF after he broke ranks last month to declare his candidacy for the presidency in an election on March 29th, is shaping up to be no joke for the incumbent.
上周，津巴布韦现总统罗伯特•穆加贝高调庆祝了他的84岁生日，他将最近严重挑战他总统竞选的人视同一个妓女或一只青蛙，很高兴地解除了挑战者的职位。这一公开报道没有失真，但辛巴•马科尼正在形成的对现任总统的挑战可不非是一个玩笑。自从上个月他违反执政的津巴布韦非洲民族联盟―爱国阵线（ZANU- PF）的决定宣布以总统候选人身份参加3月29日的总统竞选后，他就被踢出了执政党。

Untainted by corruption, he is appealing to ruling-party and opposition supporters alike, especially the urban middle class and the young. His detractors admit he is competent. His surprise candidacy has breathed life into a poll that most observers presumed would be a shoo-in for Mr Mugabe. Immediately after Mr Makoni's declaration, thousands of people rushed to register. Eager volunteers throng his leafy campaign headquarters in the centre of Harare, the capital.
辛巴•马科尼没有***的污点，他同时受到执政党和反对党支持者的欢迎，特别是城市中产阶级和年青人。批评他的人也承认他有才能。他令人吃惊的参加总统竞选已经将他的生命注入到投票站了，而大多数选举观察员们认为这是要让穆加贝总统下台。在马科尼先生宣布参加总统竞选后，立刻有数以千计的群众冲去进行登记。热情的志愿者们则聚集在马科尼先生位于首都哈拉雷中心的竞选总部。

Morgan Tsvangirai, one of the two leaders of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which split three years ago, still has quite a following, especially among urban working-class voters, and he still gets credit for opposing Mr Mugabe and his ZANU-PF for the past nine years. But feuds have weakened both parts of the MDC. Its appeal in rural areas is weak. And a smaller faction of it, led by Arthur Mutambara, has now endorsed Mr Makoni.
莫甘•塞万吉莱（Morgan Tsvangirai），是“民主变革运动（MDC）”两大领导人之一。三年前，“民运”发生分裂，但仍拥有相当的支持者，特别是在城市的工人阶级当中。莫甘先生因为过去九年中对穆加贝总统和他的“民盟”的反对而仍然获得群众的信任。但是，反对派之间的不各已经损害了“民运”各方。他们在农村的吸引力很微弱，另外他们当中的一个由亚瑟•穆塔姆巴拉（Arthur Mutambara）领导的小派别已经决定支持马科尼先生了。

The former finance minister says he will try to embrace all political groups, including decent people from ZANU-PF, after he has won the election. “We believe the crisis is bigger than one group and requires the total mobilisation of this whole nation,” he says. Though Mr Mutambara has endorsed Mr Makoni, Mr Tsvangirai seems loth to close ranks before the poll. Mr Makoni claims that most of ZANU-PF's leadership supports him. None of the ruling party's heavyweights publicly admits to backing him; they will almost certainly hedge their bets until the election. But few have criticised him or tried to block his candidacy.
这位前财长表示他获得选举后，将接受所有的政治派别，包括“民盟”中的正直人士。“我们相信解决危机要比忠诚于单个政治党派重要，它要求这个国家整个动员起来。”马科尼先生说。虽然穆塔姆巴拉已经决定支持他，塞万吉莱先生看上去仍不愿意在选举前和马科尼先生团结起来。马科尼先生宣布大多数“民盟”的领导人支持他。虽然没有执政党的重量级人物公开承认扶持他，因为他们显然不会在选举前押上他们的赌注，但是几乎没有人批评他或者是试图阻止他作为总统候选人。

At a local level, grumbling in the ruling party is getting louder; bickering and division have marred its primaries. A long-standing ZANU-PF man running for a council seat on March 29th under the party banner admits that the party has lost its vim since independence and no longer attracts the young. Corruption, he laments, is endemic. “We used to laugh at Nigeria over corruption,” he says. “Not any more.”
在地方的执政党成员的怨言正变得越来越大，争吵和分裂已经破坏了执政党的初选。一位在“民盟”的旗帜下竞争3月29日的一个委员会职位的老龄党员承认，执政党自从独立后已经失去了曾经的活力，对年青人不再有吸引力。他悲叹党内***流行。“我们过去常常取笑尼日利亚***，”他说，“现在我们没资格再笑他们了。”

Mr Makoni has launched his electoral ship with aplomb; it already seems surprisingly well-equipped. Ibbo Mandaza, one of Mr Makoni's advisers, says there is a team in every constituency. Businessmen and people from Zimbabwe's 3m-strong diaspora are said to be opening their wallets. Scarce fuel has been organized and scores of rallies and events scheduled across the country before polling day.
马科尼先生已经沉着地开启了他的选举航船，而令人吃惊的是这艘船看上去装备精良。他的一位叫Ibbo Mandaza的顾问表示，每个选区都有一支队伍在工作。商人们以及津巴布韦多达300万的海外侨民表示会慷慨解囊。稀少的燃料已经被有效利用起来，同时在投票日前在全国安排了数以十计的集会和聚会。

Though no picnic, opposition campaigning looks a bit easier than in previous elections. According to the Zimbabwe Election Support Network (ZESN), there has so far been little violence. Mr Mandaza says the ruling party's “machinery of violence” has collapsed. The ZANU-PF man standing for a local council says he now openly engages with his opposition rivals. A headmaster in a rural area east of Harare says that campaigning is much easier this time around. The opposition is contesting almost all parliamentary and local seats in his area—a ruling party stronghold. That did not happen last time.
虽然人们没有惊慌，反对派的竞选活动看上去比从前的大选要容易得多。津巴布韦选举支持网络(ZESN)表示，迄今还没有什么暴力活动。Mandaza先生表示，执政党的“暴力机器”已经崩溃了。一位地方委员会的“民盟”党员声称他现在公开地和他的反对派竞争。一位哈拉雷东部的农村校长表示这次竞选活动进行得相当容易。反对派在他所有的地区竞争几乎所有的议会和地区席位，而这一地区是执政党的一个堡垒地区。上次，根本没有出现这种情况。

But does this mean Mr Mugabe is on the skids? It is hard to gauge the electoral weight of rural voters, who provide most of ZANU-PF's support, but it is certainly heavy. “This is where the election will be won or lost,” says Sydney Masamvu of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank. A recent redrawing of the electoral map increased the weight of rural constituencies in parliament.
但是这意味着穆加贝先生快要失败了吗？很难衡量提供了执政党“民盟”绝大部分的支持的农村选民在选举中的重大作用，但可以肯定的是他们的分量很重。“这是选举胜负的关键所在，”国际危机团体（一个布鲁塞尔智囊团）的西德尼•马萨姆（Sydney Masamvu）说。最近对选举区域的重新划分增加了农村选区在议会中的重量。

The ZANU-PF candidate for a local council predicts that, though Mr Makoni has the ability, vision and record to be president, he will make few inroads in rural areas, which the ruling party has controlled through intimidation and patronage—for instance, by distributing land, equipment and food to card-carrying party members. The rural headmaster also says Mr Makoni has little chance outside the towns unless his campaign takes off, which will require immense energy and organisation. “People here know Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai, but not Simba Makoni,” he says.
执政党“民盟”的一个地方委员会候选人预测说，虽然马科尼先生有能力、有眼界，有经验来就任总统，但他也不大会损害农村地区的利益。执政党通过胁迫和施以恩惠如分配土地、设备和食物给正式党员等控制了农村地区。那个农村校长也说马科尼先生在城镇外的农村地区赢得选举的机会很是渺茫，除非他在那里进行活动，而这需要充沛的精力和良好的组织。“这儿的人们知道穆加贝先生，也知道莫甘先生，但不知道辛巴•马科尼先生。”他说。

Moreover, many voters who detest Mr Mugabe are suspicious of Mr Makoni. Some MDC people say he may even have been planted to divide the opposition in the towns. “He needs to say who backs him,” says one. Others who have been fighting Mr Mugabe's regime for years dismiss him because he was in ZANU-PF's leadership for so long. On the other side, diehard Mugabe fans think him a traitor.
另外，许多厌恶穆加贝先生的选民对马科尼先生持怀疑态度。一些“民运”的成员认为马科尼先生也许是特意安插过来分裂城镇里的反对派的。“他得说出谁知识他。”其中一人说。其他那些曾经多年和穆加贝政权斗争的人不满意马科尼先生，因为他曾经担任过长时间的“民盟”领导人。另一方面，强硬的穆加贝支持者则视马科尼先生为叛徒。

Mr Makoni dismisses such concerns. “There's nowhere I go in the country where I am not greeted by name,” he says, adding that he is “nobody's tool”. But he does not disavow his long service in ZANU-PF governments. “I accept collective responsibility, but it does not operate on unanimity.” He says he tried to change the party from within, always speaking out against bad policies. He is banking on a groundswell of support to loosen ZANU-PF's grip in the rural areas. He is embarking on a country tour that will last until the election, starting with a rally in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe's second city and capital of the deeply disgruntled Ndebele minority.
马科尼先生不大考虑这些顾虑。“这个国家没有哪个地方听到我的名字不欢迎我去的。”他说，并表示他“不是谁的工具”。但时他没有否认他曾长期在“民盟”政府中服务。“我接受承担集体责任，但是它（政府）并不是在意见完全一致的情况下工作的。”他表示他曾试图从内部改变执政党，他一直公开反对政府的一些恶劣政策。他正在指望对他的支持能出现一次地震，从而减弱政府对农村地区的控制。他正对农村进行一次视察，这一活动将以在Bulawayo的一次集会开始，并一直持续到大选开始。Bulawayo是津巴布韦第二大城市，也是对政府深深不满的恩德贝勒少数族群的首府。

Much will also depend on whether he can ensure that the election is not stolen. ZESN doubts the electoral environment can allow for a free and fair poll. A new constitution and reforms of repressive media and security laws were agreed on during negotiations between the opposition and the ruling party overseen by Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president. But they will not be implemented before the poll.
还有很多是建立在他是否能确保这次大选的结果不会被窃取（选举是否公正）。ZESN怀疑选举环境是否能做到自由和公正的选举。在南非总统姆贝基的监督下，执政党和反对派就起草一部新宪法以及修改压制媒体的法律和一些安全法规达成了一致。然而，这些决议是不会在这次选举前实行的。

There is no independent radio or television. The voters roll, which Mr Makoni's team is combing to spot and correct discrepancies, is highly unreliable. His people are also training thousands of polling agents to staff the 11,000 voting stations. They expect other tricks, such as the ruling party providing too few ballot papers in urban polling stations, where the opposition is strongest. But Mr Makoni's team thinks sympathizers in ZANU-PF will give valuable tip-offs to help stymie the rigging.
津巴布韦没有独立的广播和电视。马科尼先生的小组正在检查以找出矛盾之处并加以改正的选民名单，是非常不可靠的。他的人同时在训练数以千计的投票工作人员来充实那1.1万个投票站。他们相信会出现诸如执政党在反对势力最强大的城市选区投票站提供太少的选票这样的诡计。但是马科尼先生的小组认为“民盟”中的同情者将会透露这方面的珍贵情报来帮助他们阻碍有人试图操纵大选。

The presidential poll is a two-round affair. Mr Mugabe could well win the first round—but Mr Makoni's planners and the MDC bet he will fail to get more than 50% of votes cast. If they are right, the momentum should be with the challenger.
总统选举将要举行两轮。穆加贝先生在第一轮中会胜出，但马科尼先生的策划者以及“民运”肯定穆加贝先生无法获得超过50%的选票。如果他们的这种看法是对的，那么大势将会倾向他的挑战者。